think or thwim

Here’s another interesting fact that my history teacher should have mentioned. Lincoln is almost always shown with a beard, but he only had one for the last five years of his life. Here’s how he’s normally portrayed:

While running for president in 1860, at the age of 51, Lincoln received this letter from 11 year old Grace Bedell suggesting that he grow a beard to improve his appearance.

Hon A B Lincoln…

Dear Sir

My father has just home from the fair and brought home your picture and Mr. Hamlin’s. I am a little girl only 11 years old, but want you should be President of the United States very much so I hope you wont think me very bold to write to such a great man as you are.

Have you any little girls about as large as I am if so give them my love and tell her to write to me if you cannot answer this letter. I have got 4 brothers and part of them will vote for you any way and if you let your whiskers grow I will try and get the rest of them to vote for you you would look a great deal better for your face is so thin. All the ladies like whiskers and they would tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be President.

My father is going to vote for you and if I was a man I would vote for you to but I will try to get every one to vote for you that I can I think that rail fence around your picture makes it look very pretty I have got a little baby sister she is nine weeks old and is just as cunning as can be. When you direct your letter direct to Grace Bedell Westfield Chautauqua County New York.

I must not write any more answer this letter right off Good bye

Grace Bedell

President Lincoln’s reply:

Springfield, Ill Oct 19, 1860

Miss Grace Bedell

My dear little Miss

Your very agreeable letter of the 15th is received - I regret the necessity of saying I have no daughters - I have three sons - one seventeen, one nine, and one seven years of age - They, with their mother, constitute my whole family -

As to the whiskers, having never worn any, do you not think people would call it a piece of silly affectation if I were to begin it now?

Your very sincere well wisher

A. Lincoln

Then, according to Wikipedia, he grew a beard within a month. Here’s what he looked like before the letter:

So, thanks to Miss Bedell, the five dollar bill looks like this instead of this.

History is not as boring as it is usually presented in school. My history teacher told us John Wilkes Booth shot President Lincoln while he was watching a play at Ford’s Theater. He failed to mention that it was the result of a conspiracy involving at least 8 other people, so you can imagine my surprise when I saw this picture.

At the end of the Civil War, the north was holding thousands of confederate prisoners of war. The original plan was to kidnap President Lincoln and ransom him for the release of the prisoners. In March of 1865 the conspirators gathered at a restaurant to wait for the President, but the plan fell through when Lincoln had a last minute change of plans. Ironically, he attended a function at the hotel where John Wilkes Booth was staying instead. Booth became more desperate and decided to kill the President, Vice President, and Secretary of State simultaneously in an attempt to overthrow the government and revive the confederate revolution.

The following text is from Doug Linder | The Trial of the Lincoln Assassination Conspirators

For President Abraham Lincoln, things looked brighter on Friday, April 14, 1865 than they had for a long time. Five days earlier, General Robert E. Lee effectively ended the long nightmare of the Civil War by surrendering the Army of Northern Virginia, and just the previous day, the city of Washington celebrated the war’s end by illuminating every one of its public building with candles. Candles also burned in most private homes, causing a city paper to describe the nation’s capital as “all ablaze with glory.” The President decided he could finally afford an evening of relaxation: he would attend a performance of Our American Cousin at Ford’s Theatre in downtown Washington.

The presidential party took their seats in a specially-prepared box on the left side of the stage. During the second scene of the third act of the play, John Wilkes Booth, a southern-sympathizing actor, climbed the stairs to the mezzanine. He showed a card to Lincoln’s valet-footman and was allowed entry through a lobby door leading to the presidential box.

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The Sapporo Snow Festival takes place during 7 days in February.

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I typed this using my mouse and Dasher, a free open source program that allows you to enter text efficiently without using a keyboard, or even hands if you have the right equipment. Here’s how it works:

This video is an excerpt from David MacKay’s presentation at Google. The rest of the presentation goes into more detail about how it works and how it might be used. He says experienced users achieve 10 to 35 words per minute with fewer typos than using a keyboard. I’m considerably slower than that.

I think driving through a 3D landscape with the letters arrayed in front of you might be easier and more intuitive, but this first version is a pretty brilliant start. 3D letters could be larger or smaller based on the probability they will be used next. It might also helpful to divide the visible spectrum by the number of characters in a language and give each character it’s own color - which would be only slightly different than it’s neighbors.

There is an online Java version of Dasher at Dasher.org.uk. You can also download the desktop version there.

I was surprised by the urgency of this article.

Jon Gertner interviewed water managers all over the southwestern United States for his article on the predicted water crisis. They used words like catastrophe and armageddon to describe the water shortages they see coming in their region.

That may sound over the top, but the area’s major reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are currently only about 50% full. Lake Mead was slightly lower in 1955 and 1964 (Powell wasn’t built until 1965), but the system is more stressed now. There are more people relying on that water, and the climate models indicate that there may not be enough rain to fill them. The Southern Nevada Water Authority is racing to install a lower water intake from Lake Mead before the lake level falls below the existing intakes that supply Las Vegas. Of course, the trend could reverse any time, but a lot of knowledgeable people are convinced that the current dry spell is the beginning of a permanent change.

From Gertner’s article:

Steven Chu, a Nobel laureate and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, one of the United States government’s pre-eminent research facilities, remarked that diminished supplies of fresh water might prove a far more serious problem than slowly rising seas. When I met with Chu last summer in Berkeley, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which provides most of the water for Northern California, was at its lowest level in 20 years. Chu noted that even the most optimistic climate models for the second half of this century suggest that 30 to 70 percent of the snowpack will disappear. “There’s a two-thirds chance there will be a disaster,” Chu said, “and that’s in the best scenario.”

The southeastern US is also in the middle of a severe drought, but the climate models aren’t predicting armageddon there. Texas seems to be the only place in the southern US with full lakes at the moment, but the aquifers are falling there too.

Read the rest of Jon Gertner’s article: The Future is Drying Up

It was in the 10/21/07 New York Times Magazine, but I’m linking to Truthout’s reprint to avoid the NYT’s ridiculous registration page.

This map from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory shows the projected average precipitation over the next 50 years compared to the average precipitation over the last 50 years.

It’s going to get much dryer at the equator and wetter at the poles.

…nineteen different climate modeling groups around the world, using different climate models, show widespread agreement that Southwestern North America - and the subtropics in general - are on a trajectory to a climate even more arid than now.

I didn’t find a map, but the southern Europe/Mediterranean/Middle East region is also expected to dry significantly.

This graph from the original article in Science Magazine shows the results of all 19 models. This century is divided into five 20 year segments. Almost all of the predictions fall on the negative side of the line.

A123 Systems sounds like an extermination company named to be first in the phone book, but it’s a spin off from a research lab at MIT that’s going to make a big difference. The company is really named after one of the equations that is responsible for the breakthrough it is commercializing.

Right now our laptop computers, cordless tools, and Tesla Roadsters all use lithium ion batteries because they have the highest energy to weight ratio available. On the downside, they lose up to 20% of their capacity per year no matter how well you treat them, and impurities introduced in the manufacturing process can lead to thermal runaway if the cell is overcharged (also known as bursting into flames).

A Tesla Roadster has 6800 li-ion cells. They have a battery management system that should keep the problem confined to one cell. They haven’t had any problems in their crash tests, but a battery that didn’t tend to catch on fire would be a big improvement.

A123 Systems uses some nanotech magic that results in a cell that fails gracefully. This video (from VentureOne) shows a puncture test of A123’s battery followed by a traditional lithium ion.

Most li-ion batteries have a graphite anode, but lots of different materials are used for the cathode. Selecting a cathode material is a balance between total energy, maximum power, cost, and safety.

A123 Systems is using an iron phosphate cathode which has rarely been used. It is inexpensive and one of the safest materials available, but it doesn’t conduct electricity well - fairly important in a battery. A123’s nanotech magic changes the lattice structure of the iron phosphate atoms so that the lithium phase change happens more easily, and the cathode becomes a better conductor. That means the system isn’t stressed as much. Less stress means the batteries will last 7000 charge cycles vs 500 for traditional li-ions. Another happy effect is a lot more power: 2X the energy density and 5X the peak power. They also recharge up to 90% in 5 minutes.

Their batteries are already being sold in DeWalt 36 volt cordless tools, and the Chevy Volt will use them. Last year, A123 Systems bought a company called Hymotion. They make plug in upgrade kits for hybrid vehicles. A Hymotion pack for a Prius mounts in the spare tire well, and extends it’s fuel efficiency to 150 miles per gallon equivalent.

:: IEEE Spectrum

Sam Harris was raised by a Jewish mother and Quaker father. He studied Buddhism during a temporary leave from Stanford. He returned, earned an undergraduate degree in philosophy, and is currently working on a doctorate in neurology - specifically the basis of belief in the brain.

September 11 motivated him to write his first book, The End of Faith. In it he argues that religion is actually harmful, and religious moderates are just as problematic as fundamentalists.

He gave this talk at the Long Now Foundation right after the book came out. The video quality is bad, but the message makes up for it. Harris explains the difference between religious dogma and genuine spiritual contemplation.

This PBS Frontline aired Tuesday. It documents Dick Cheney’s battle to strengthen the executive branch over his 35 year political career. It also shines the spotlight on David Addington, who replaced Scooter Libbey as Cheney’s second in command (I believe Sith Lord is the title of that role).

Jack Goldsmith talked about this stuff on the Daily Show last month. Link

Lynn Cheney appeared on the Daily Show last week. Part 1 | Part 2